Central Arizona Continues To See Great Real Estate Values (and then there's the down side)
The Great Arizona Real Estate Market - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly!
Submitted Mon, 02/14/2022
Home owners in the Phoenix Metro area (Namely Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Scottsdale, Peoria, Tempe) will continue to see to see their home values increase!
Why? Because of a strong employment/labor market and resulting population growth, coupled with a shortage of housing inventory.
This was the focus of a Gilbert Town Council meeting, special study session1, held on Tuesday, February 8, 2022. A meeting that included a presentation on the subject by noted Arizona economist Elliott Pollack.
Homeowners will see this as "a good thing" as pointed out by Vice Mayor Aimee Yentes during the meeting. However, with the up sides come down sides that include housing supply and affordability, which was the focus of Mr. Pollack's presentation... or more appropriately a WARNING!
Mr. Pollack is the CEO of Elliott D. Pollack and Company, an economic and real estate consulting firm and a consulting economist to Arizona State University and co-editor of the Arizona and Greater Phoenix Blue Chip economic forecasts published by ASU's Economic Outlook Center.
Mr. Pollack's presentation was well documented and graphed* to illustrate the peril of good economic fortune - That Arizona employment growth has outstripped housing supply, and increasing home prices has created an affordability crisis that threatens multiple sectors. Arizona has had a long reputation for affordability, but this may be coming to an end.
The down sides are the people who will be priced out of the housing market or left homeless all together. This is not an attractive employment incentive for companies who have put down stakes in Arizona. The up sides are with homeowners who purchase at some of Arizona's more attractive 'buyers' markets, and with home builders who must now step up to meet the demand for not only housing, but affordable housing. Home builders have helped Arizona through some difficult times in recent years, but suburban sprawl is also a concern for many Arizonans that were attracted here by the desert charm and lifestyle - a charm and lifestyle that is disappearing with every new development. Arizona has long been a innovator with housing developments and perhaps a new era in thinking, planning and innovation is due to address the housing shortage and lifestyle concerns of large populations and sprawl.
*For a good article, including graphics mentioned above, read the article2 'Housing crisis threatens us all, economist warns' By Trubune Staff Writer Cecilia Chan
(also archived at https://issuu.com/timespub/docs/mt_0213_zone_1_book/1?e=8633901/89627437)
November 21, 2022:
By Annie Lowrey at The Atlantic. Rough estimates of what economists call the "housing gap" — how much the United States would have to build to bring it back in line with historical trends
July 14, 2022:
"We're seeing a shortage, or housing underproduction, in all corners of the U.S.," says Mike Kingsella, the CEO of Up for Growth.
- Home prices are up more than 30% over the past couple of years
- Unaffordability in home ownership and renting
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ 85,031 units short (−5% shortage 2017-2019)
- Changing outdated zoning rules is key
- Reference: Gilbert Town Council meeting, special study session, held on Tuesday, February 8, 2022. http://www.gilbertdocs.com/GilbertAgendaOnline/Meetings/ViewMeeting?id=896&doctype=2
- Reference article: 'Housing crisis threatens us all, economist warns' By Mesa Tribune Staff Writer Cecilia Chan https://www.themesatribune.com/news/housing-crisis-threatens-us-all-economist-warns/article_d5d38f8c-8c7e-11ec-ac3f-9fcdd8e5b321.html
- Archival Reference 1: https://windamereconstruction.com/sites/windamereconstruction.com/files/articles/2-2022_Arizona-Housing-crisis-threatens-us-all/Gilbert-Town-Council-minutes_2-8-22.pdf
- Archival Reference 2: https://windamereconstruction.com/sites/windamereconstruction.com/files/articles/2-2022_Arizona-Housing-crisis-threatens-us-all/Housing-crisis-threatens-the-Arizona-Valley-Sunday-February-13-2022.pdf
- 📰 July 14, 2022 - There's a massive housing shortage across the U.S. Here's how bad it is where you live
- 📰 November 21, 2022 - The U.S. Needs More Housing Than Almost Anyone Can Imagine